Peter Kafka: This is Recode Media. Manchester United are in year two of what is supposed to be a three year rebuild. Some believe this fee will grow over time (and it probably will), but even at the music industry’s peak (i.e. Liam is my middle name, Boluk is my mother’s maiden name, and it has this brilliant aftereffect of being incredibly SEO-optimized. And so, I just started doing that. Sort of one of the ’80s, ’90s indie producers of note. You also have the fact that Gartner has said that Amazon Video is now essentially neck and neck with iTunes, both domestically and abroad, in digital video downloads. They say that that’s because Prime Video is spending more than anyone else, save for Netflix. A closer look at this year’s draft class. See the complete profile on LinkedIn and discover Matthew’s connections and jobs at similar companies. ... Podcast with "Morning Brew": Matthew Ball Dissects The Streaming Wars. That may or may not be true, but at the end of the day when it’s being given away for free to 100 million households, that’s a guaranteed slot. What were you doing prior to writing for Jason Hirschhorn? This sounds like something I wrote. Many consumers hate the idea that film studios seem to exist only to produce merchandise, sequels and branding partnerships – but this trend is the inevitable result of a history of thin margins, shallow balance sheets, and small, unpredictable profits. Here, too, AT&T’s plans for HBO are telling. Yeah, that’s sort of standard for that sort of thing. My guess would be that their goal is to come out at a modest monthly price or a free price to broadcast to consumers, “Use us as your core destination for video,” subscribe to HBO through Apple and consolidate all of that usage of iTunes up and down. Apple is cognizant of that and is trying to understand, what can they do to drive more usage of their ecosystem to make them the primary destination for video services, and it looks like Prime Video is a solution to that. The question is not necessarily, “Is this going to be engaging, is the technology too early, is it just hitting the right demo?” It’s going to take some time for the new creatives to emerge, to want to play with these tools, to see whether Bandersnatch works, how it does, what the limitations are. You take a look. That has been a good business for Amazon. “Branching narratives.”, That’s the term. All of a sudden, they’re winning awards. And you’re ... We’ll talk about this more, but you’re pretty fierce at least writing-wise, right? He had connected me with the then head of Amazon Studios. One is, what’s the offering that’s going to come forward, and then the separate is, what’s the market context that’s already going to exist? Then we get to Transparent. Since 2013, Spotify ARPU has fallen from $9.61 to $5.61 – a clear reflection of overall willingness to pay. So, I’ll give you a good example of that, which was, when I was there, one of the first decisions was what to do with an HBO renewal. Maybe I value one or two other things, maybe I think Quibi’s great, maybe I think the WarnerMedia thing is great.” Whatever it is. And I don’t mean that in a pejorative way. Analyst Matthew Ball sits down with Recode’s Peter Kafka to discuss how the coronavirus is changing the landscape on how SVOD’s are currently conducting business, why Hollywood is choosing to delay some big feature releases, and how the video game industry is thriving. Receive every essay via email; day of release, Gaming is going to grow a lot in the future. The conglomeration and strategic deployment of media has been in process. I think the key thing to keep in mind is what’s always interesting when you have a delivery change or a technology and distribution change is not so much how that content moves from one device to another device, but what new content is created, to begin with. Instead, they were in the business of charging advertisers for the right to their viewer’s attention. You do, but I think the difference is many of those people in media also produce content that you would consider easier going, more “low-brow” if you want to use a loaded term, but the reality is audiences watch five-and-a-half hours per day of video. And we get it for free, awesome. In the simplest way, I think what they’re trying to do is replicate what Amazon has been doing for several years. We spent a while shifting away from this model – to the point in which companies focused exclusively on consumer spend, such as HBO, emerged. If you’re not hanging out in LA, it’s the Brooklyn of LA. This is not altogether dissimilar from one of the advantages that Fox News has, that may be vestigial, may not be, but the fact is Fox has always branded very strongly, Fox Business Network, Fox Broadcast Company, Fox Sports. They also now own Hulu. As competition cools and winners become clear, prices will go up and each conglomerate will look to optimize the performance in the BU.). But who owns that screen? What’s different is, Netflix overall is going after what we would today consider pay TV. That, if you were watching something, right below the search bar will say, “Finish watching Man in the High Castle,” or rather, “Go watch Patriot. It’s powered by and excels at content, but 34% of its revenues come from theme parks (which have a net asset value of $60B), another 8% from consumer products, and 15% from the resale of sports rights it doesn’t directly operate. Thank you. My Blog for 'The Economist': Will “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” rebalance Disney’s universe? And the answer is, the company is always organized to do the thing that works then, and then move to the new thing. Pay-TV is the best example. Fire TV is another business that didn’t exist in the early days of Prime Video. We’re going to spend more money to make more stuff. They may be coming late to market, but they are coming out with such a high volume of outstanding quality. It’s kind of fun to watch the recursive ... Yeah, for you. Previous. You would think so, and the company does have a strange history of when and how they, of course, present their video content. The idea I think of assembling a WarnerMedia offering is just more challenging because that connection between the brands, what that brand means, is just a lot more opaque. Amazon is bigger. That’s a good business if you can get it. We’re going to flash up graphics, like you’d see if you were playing an EA game, and they’re just going to chat. Correction: A previous version of this article misstated the number of Fire TV users. And that was really the big opportunity where I started getting out of the old path, into the new one. We have all this other stuff we put out through Turner. Bonus and ad-free content available with Stitcher Premium. And then John Stankey did an interview with Bloomberg, within hours of that story coming out, and saying, basically it’s going to be $15, but whatever it is, it’s going to be some kind of ... there’ll be HBO, and then they’ll add more stuff and they may or may not charge extra for it. Your financial contribution will not constitute a donation, but it will enable our staff to continue to offer free articles, videos, and podcasts to all who need them. Felix Salmon wrote a big piece. Some are being retained internally, some are still going to be sold on the open marketplace. That’s a good laugh. Then you have those who have been first to market, such as Netflix. I’m talking to you from Vox Media headquarters in New York City. If Apple does the same thing, it’s a guaranteed slot. I don’t know the gateway there. Yeah, they’re phenomenal characters. I almost went there instead of going to Chernin, decided to go to Chernin. Right? I want to explain to the readers who don’t know who you are who you are. You want to put your money/other people’s money where your mouth is? I don’t have connections. @ballmatthew. And then the non-joke version is, paying for all this stuff is going to be too much and we should just go back to the old cable TV days. You hire different creators. Analyst Matthew Ball sits down with Recode’s Peter Kafka to discuss how the coronavirus is changing the landscape on how SVOD’s are currently conducting business, why Hollywood is choosing to delay some big feature releases, and how the video game industry is thriving. So that doesn’t work. Content today is no cheaper to produce than it was five-10 years ago. No. And they know that people are particularly passionate about video. This is all a long-winded and very typical way of me answering a short question. Once that talent, to some extent, grows up, to another another extent moves into more traditional media, that convergence of gaming and media occurs, that’s where you’ll start to see the innovation. ‎Show Recode Media, Ep Matthew Ball on Amazon vs Apple vs Netflix vs Disney, and how he built a digital media career by writing for free - Jun 5, 2019 ... Vox Media. Co-written with Hulu’s former Head of Content ... A small number of companies will win the streaming “battle royale,” says former Amazon Studios strategist Matthew Ball. The real challenge to me is not so much “are there going to be five or are there seven?” but how many of those five or seven are the free services that are just going to squeeze everyone out? When you start to look at what types of shows really break out, really differentiate, and most importantly, are going to change people’s perception about paying for video in the first place. Through 15 games, here’s where are Game Ball standings stand: Matthew Stafford: 13 Jack Fox: 13 Romeo Okwara: 9 D’Andre Swift: 7 T.J. Hockenson: 7 Taylor Decker: 7 … Do not give Matt Ball your money. I’m talking to you from Vox Media headquarters in New York City. So, extra credit for you for showing up. Turns out no one will. Duke scored the first six points of the second half, closed to … The impulse kind of comes from one of three areas. Or Steven Soderbergh did. Every day at Vox, we aim to answer your most important questions and provide you, and our audience around the world, with information that empowers you through understanding. For more than a century, the advertising industry has been a stable 1.25% of total GDP. And we’ll see how that shakes out, but I think the core is, there is still demand for massive amounts of content that has not gotten cheaper, and in fact most of the new entrants, Amazon, Apple, and so forth ... Are coming in with more. There’s always this question of, what is Amazon going to do with live sports? How do we think Amazon is going to do in this battle royale we’ve been discussing for the last hour? There’s a shorthand for all this stuff, that sloppy thinkers like me do and they say, “Oh, this is a Netflix killer,” but that’s just a sloppy headline. A lot of stuff that most regular people don’t care about. I’m Peter Kafka, that’s me. What do you think they’re trying to do? So, you think my thought that video games are something you do in one part of the house around one screen or one device or watching TV is something you do, it’s a distinct thing, that’s an old fuddy-duddy way of looking at it, and everyone is ... younger folks are going to increasingly converge? Their first foray into video, they did that at a $3,000/ticket Code Media conference. That’s a number growing by 6-8 million per year. It said, I think, 25 Morton Street. I believe there’s a trademark issue. I think it’s one bolstered by the massive reach they have, and with all these tech companies, to some extent, it comes down to a question of how long and how deep do you want to play for this? So if you take a look at that idea of how is it that 300 million Americans spend five-and-a-half hours a day watching video, it’s because it reflects, it allows, that full range of engagement. I don’t know whether or not they do or don’t to make it work. It just so happened that if the new thing is SVOD, having an à la carte premium cable network positioned you phenomenally well. There’s a company with more cash with a longer time horizon.”, I mean, Netflix would say, “We take Amazon very seriously.”. 1/ Every new year tends to be seen as the one where Netflix will start to feel Big Media fight back 2019 looks right! That’s a reflection of the base. And so I’ve been helping them as they start to think through those products. We’ll say 2000s and 2010s of note, too. Let’s go through some of the other big media companies. It was the perfect example of a company that has strong convictions, incredible assets, but is new to the space. It essentially deflated. Their catalog is believed to have shrunk by anywhere from 40 percent to 60 percent. We’ve gone over Disney, Netflix, Apple, I’m going to save Amazon for a second. Or the answer is you’re just too far out of the demo. I think there are a number of people in the marketplace who have said that Disney would be better off just selling their content to Netflix, and of course there are going to be many consumers who sit back and they say, “I kind of preferred when I could see Black Panther on Netflix and now you’re saying I have to go pay for it on Disney.”. One of Matthew Stafford’s passes made the top 10 longest throws by air distance yards of the 2020 season, according to Next Gen Stats. I think no one would be successful at any level in that company if they couldn’t say that they affected a decision one way or another. Okay, so you do the standard, “I’m going to be a consultant”? They know what DC is, and we’ve seen AT&T has been trying to build, or rather WarnerMedia was, back when it was Time Warner, a DC-centric offering. But you have to put it in the perspective too, to some extent, it’s a relatively unnoticed 24-year-old kid who is like, I’m just going to explore, have conversations, see what people think about this. It has ... As I said, I describe it as being the Steve Buscemi gif, right? There was a general rigor towards reevaluating prior decisions that were being made. It was going to Google in 2004. Right? But then, that was right around the time in which we started selling HBO. Featuring: Matthew Ball (@ballmatthew), Analyst Spend on books and video gaming are only $140B each. Because I just watched The Sopranos over the last few months through my Amazon Prime sub. Along the way they dropped a three-minute preview of one of their Apple+ TV shows. It’s choose your adventure video. I think you’re pro-Disney, we can talk about this. “The goal with everything that Amazon does is to satisfy customers and to give them the fullest range of possible options.”. The music industry is growing faster than it has in decades, but at only $33B in consumer spend, it could double and still feel anemic. Downton. But there are a lot of Americans watching a lot of it, right? Once the studio had repaired its finances, it diversified its way into resorts, soft drink bottling and film theaters. That’s part of what you do. Yeah. I think the whole point is that flywheel, devices, channels, digital downloads, and Amazon content is all synergistic. However, it does mean that the more people who have your service, the less you require from each subscriber to generate a profit. And, by the way, Netflix, when they were doing originals, started off doing that kind of programming. What’s more, most expect this sum to shrink as the bloated and barely competitive pay-TV ecosystem gives way to lower cost or free substitutes such as Netflix, Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, and so on. “Hey, we’ve got to talk about this,” yeah. Some people say everyone’s wrong, and then they go, “I’m going to profit from it, but I don’t need to write about it.”. There are two things that are important there. The big platforms finally policed Donald Trump. It is also notable that half of the market is now “free-to-play games” that require $0 upfront (again, we resist spending money) and then use casino-like tricks to generate revenue in “micro” payments. Where you say, “well, if we make our stuff more interactive, thus we’ll compete more with Netflix.” That’s just saying one of the things our customers might want to do is interact with our video. I’ve never watched it anyway. You may come back again, because I’ve got more questions for you. Tens of millions of AT&T households will get HBO Max for free, as will tens of millions of Verizon Wireless customers receive Disney+ or Quibi, with millions of Disney theme park customers getting Disney+ free, while Comcast customers will get Peacock, and so on. HBO in the United States has 36-38 million subscribers. I think in general, when you take a look at what’s the type of media that goes from one world to another world, you have some of the players in the market. It’s a company that is trying. Despite having their price go up, their offering go down, reaching harder-to-reach customers, the company continues to grow as quickly as possible. Beta House. Right. newsletter. We know from the era of traditional television, that aggregated experience, the pay-TV bundle, adds value to it. I mean, that depends on the term, but ... My point is more, the whole question of how are they doing and what’s different is really a reflection of how that business has become more sophisticated. We’ll plan them, I’ll connect you with those who have the information to make them even better than we can just together, and we’ll see where that goes.”. Instead of selling its subscribers Disney+, Verizon is going to give it away free to reduce churn. As regulators and consumers fight back against this model (the worst version being so-called “loot boxes”), the growth may also slow. Podcast with "Morning Brew": Matthew Ball Dissects The Streaming Wars. The reality is, most of these companies are actually saying, “We’re going to give you bigger, better, more expensive content.” That money has to go somewhere, whether there’s a bundle or whether there’s not. Frequently when someone writes about ... Oh, everyone’s ... There’s a Disney service and a Warner service and Amazon, etc. Today, however, the marginal cost of distributing content to an incremental consumer is approximately zero. Ultimately, this may mean the “Streaming Wars” never happen – or not directly, at least. the glory days of the CD album), spend peaked at $100 per capita. Featuring: Matthew Ball (@ballmatthew), Analyst For a long time, I’ve assumed that the people who work at Amazon, Jeff Bezos on down, know what they’re doing. More recently, it has announced plans to make shows based on the Lord of the Rings and Wheel of Time books. Right. Just imagine if you needed to hook up a different input on your TV to watch HBO versus Showtime. They don’t need to monopolize much of that share shift to still grow. There is a strange disconnect between our collective obsession with media and the amount of money we spend on it. Unlike Amazon, Apple isn’t an e-retailer, nor is it an enterprise cloud services provider. $120 for a year of Spotify or Apple Music (i.e. Got blown up 500 times bigger, and so forth. Let’s start with that, because I do want to ask you about Disney and Apple and Amazon and all those things and how you got to what you’re doing, but what are you doing today? Even the best network on earth hits a low ceiling. If you go visit Netflix in the last few months, they play up this interactive stuff they’re playing, right? What he also knows, however, is sometimes that decision is earlier. Former Amazon Studios strategist Matthew Ball says Netflix and Disney are safe bets to land on the winners list, but now as an outsider looking in, he thinks there’s a strong argument that Amazon will be up there, too. No, no. And so, when you talk about someone like me who had written first about what I think the digital opportunity looks like, Chernin was focused on going after, with real rigor, emerging but generally overlooked small to modest opportunities like Crunchyroll, and then going to Amazon, which is saying, “We’re going for it. Well, first job out of B school, which is ... I’m Canadian. The important symbolism of Joe Biden’s memorial to Covid-19’s victims, The most bizarre thing about Trump’s farewell speech is how normal it sounds. That within the market context of where we are and given media can now be at... The goal with everything that Amazon Prime sub, you ’ re big... Into the Streaming Wars to find out the UK A-level debacle this clarifying thread from Sam is... 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